WORLD TRADE IN ROSES 2000

THE INTERNATIONAL ROSE SCENE (CLICK HERE FOR TABLE 1)

Over the past two years the exporters of roses worldwide have been consolidating their trade in the main markets whilst looking to expand out into the non-traditional markets. Table 1 shows total international sales into the main markets, at import prices, went up 4% from $980 million to $1,014 million in 2000. Adjusting for the ongoing devaluation of the Euro, which would probably be more realistic since most of the trade is done in Europe, the increase would be higher.

The Table however are only shows part of the picture, only when the trade in roses into the non-traditional markets, and the production for domestic consumption for all the producing countries are added together can the full extent of the world market is roses be appreciated. Even at import or farmgate level, sales would be well over two billion dollars probably more. Countries such as Russia, which has been making a big recovery since the crash of the rouble, the Eastern Europe block, Mexico, Japan which does not show separate rose figures, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, India, Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand are all expanding rose production for their domestic markets and for export but the tables take no account of these.

The figures for the already established main markets vary considerably some nations have just started taking an interest in roses others have reached saturation and are not likely to grow further. Imports into Germany for instance have decreased by -$19 million to $193 million at import level in 2000. Sales of roses had not increased much over the past five years so a levelling downwards was inevitable. The fall in 2000 was put down to a reduction in the value of the Euro against the dollar, a despondent market and an increase in domestic production. Through 2001 sales at first picked up but market despondency crept back in and by the end of the year results were not looking promising. Despite all these factors in terms of consumption Germany still remains a long way ahead of any other European country

The reduced level of rose imports into France in 2000: down approximately $10 million, was blamed on many of the same factors, but the market for roses through 2001 appeared to be picking up again as the French economy began to flourish again. Germany and France are the two biggest customers for roses from The Netherlands, each relying on the Dutch for over 82% of their roses supplies. In 2000 imports into both these countries were down by more than 9%.

In 2000 imports of roses into USA increased by $20 million (9%) bringing the total to $266 million the biggest amount for any country, but also the biggest country measured. Even domestic production started to pick up again. Most of the demand was met by higher imports from Colombia - up by $15 million to $161 million into USA only. Supplies from Ecuador remained steady at $82 million, approximately half the value of Colombian rose exports. Mexico increased by 2 million to 10 million into USA and Netherlands $1 million to $ 3.6 million. 2001 saw the fizz go out of the rose market in USA. This might have been a contributory factor to the demise of Floriplex and USA Floral Products, but it is unlikely to affect the growers who have returned to rose production in USA and are commanding the best prices in the newly enhanced market.

Most of the roses within Europe come from The Netherlands: exports increased by $7 million from $419 million in 1999 to $426 million in 2000 and appear to be continuing on upwards through 2001. Some of this increase is coming from local growers returning or switching to production of large roses, but from the figures in the Table it appears that most of the increased exports are coming from imports: Exports up $7 million imports up $10.5 million. In fact allowing for a 30% mark-up on the re-exports it looks now as if more than 55% of the roses leaving The Netherlands are now re-exports. The biggest supplier of roses to Netherlands is now Kenya, followed by Zimbabwe, Ecuador, Zambia and then dropping back Israel

The most buoyant of the European importers in 2000 was UK. Consumers there appeared to have suddenly discovered the delights of cut roses alongside than their beloved carnations. Imports were up 18% to $67 million and still rising. 67% of the roses come from the Netherlands. It used to be a higher percentage but within the past few years Kenya has been rapidly developing their market in UK. The demand for roses picked significantly once the supermarkets, which are now taking an ever-increasing portion of the market, realised that the lasting quality of the newer varieties had much improved and started to put them on their shelves

Italy is one of the major rose growing nations probably on par with Netherlands in area except that Italy has a population of 58 million as opposed to the 15 million Dutch. Rose growing has been increasing steadily over a long time but there has never been enough left over from the domestic market to sustain a major export program. Large roses with good colours are appreciated and this has in the last few years the Ecuadorean roses have managed to break into the market.

The supermarkets have always dominated flower sales in Switzerland. This has meant that are more balance buying programme for roses could be developed. Just over 50% now come from The Netherlands the rest of the buying is spread across Ecuador, Italy, Kenya and Zimbabwe.

In ten years rose production for export has developed into a billion $ trade. One country i.e. Netherlands takes just over 40% of the market and the rest of the market is shared out between countries two in Latin America: Colombia and Ecuador, three countries from South East Africa: Kenya, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Israel, which used to be a dominant force in this trade, has fallen by the wayside. Uganda and Mexico are beginning to establish themselves in the trade; of these it is unlikely that Mexico will become a major force simply because it has very large population of its own many of whom have a healthy Latin appreciation for roses. Major future production could be established China and India but both of these countries have populations of more than 1 billion each practically all the roses will disappear into the domestic market. It is easy to see where markets for roses might be established it is not so easy to see where the roses to fill these markets will come from.